A Brief Guide to Pakistan’s 2024 Election
As Pakistan inches closer to its general elections scheduled for February 8, 2024, the political landscape is rife with contention and complexities. This guide aims to provide a short and accessible overview of the upcoming elections, the historical context, the key players, the role of the military, and the stakes for the nation and by implication its religious minorities.
The Political Context
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, leading the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, finds himself in a precarious position, imprisoned and facing a multitude of legal challenges. This has raised questions about the fairness of the electoral process, with PTI accusing the election commission and caretaker government of bias. This polarization within the country suggests a highly contested election, with potential risks of turmoil.
The Role of the Military
The influence of the military in Pakistan's politics has been a constant and pivotal factor. Khan's rise to power in 2018 was perceived by many as being facilitated by the military. However, his later confrontations with military authority led to a significant fallout, impacting his political trajectory and the current elections. This ongoing military influence underscores the complexities of Pakistan's consistently undermined democratic processes. This is clearly demonstrated in every election, including the victory of the Awami League, a major political party in Bangladesh, in the 1970 election, highlighting the persistent role of the military in influencing political outcomes.
Key Players and Their Roles
Imran Khan and PTI: Once a favorite, now faces legal hurdles and diminished electoral prospects due to his conflict with the military.
Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N): Sharif, a three-time former prime minister, has returned from self-exile and is leading his party's campaign. His party's position is currently favorable, partly due to the legal setbacks faced by Khan.
Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Pakistan People's Party (PPP): Representing a significant political legacy, Bhutto-Zardari aims to bring his party back to national prominence.
Balochistan
On the eve of Pakistan's general elections two separate bombings occurred near the offices of political candidates in Balochistan, resulting in at least 28 fatalities. The first explosion, in Pishin district, claimed 16 lives, while the second in Qila Saifullah resulted in 12 deaths. These attacks have dramatically heightened security concerns and cast a shadow over the election process. The bombings targeted areas crucial to the electoral activities, disrupting the pre-election environment and causing widespread anxiety about the security arrangements for the polling day.
Balochistan has witnessed an extraordinary movement led by women activists like Mahrang Baloch and Sammi Deen Baloch. These protests, originating from issues such as enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, have seen hundreds of participants marching over 1,600 kilometers to Islamabad. They faced severe police action, including the use of water cannons and tear gas, and many were arrested. This combination of pre-election violence and potent demonstrations underscores the complexity and volatility of Balochistan's situation
What’s at Stake?
This week's Pakistan elections are overshadowed by concerns about the validity of the democratic process and the re-emergence of the military as the actual power brokers. The subdued public response in contrast to the intense protests following Imran Khan's arrest last year points to the impact of a crackdown on dissent. With doubts about the election's fairness, the possibility of unrest remains.
Pakistan faces significant challenges: economic instability, high unemployment, and a security crisis exacerbated by the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan. Though Nawaz Sharif is considered capable of addressing economic issues, the military's deep involvement in politics raises questions about the possibility of meaningful change. Long-term solutions for Pakistan's problems are elusive as long as the military continues to exert such strong control over the political landscape.
Read more:
Council on Foreign Relations - "Pakistan Is on Edge Ahead of 2024 Elections": The article delves into the contenders for the prime minister position and what's at stake in the elections, including the economic crisis and security concerns: https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/pakistan-edge-ahead-2024-elections
Reuters - "Pakistan election 2024: What challenges will the new government be faced with?": This article outlines the challenges the new government will face post-election, such as economic recovery, political tensions, the military's role, and rising militancy: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-election-2024-what-challenges-will-new-government-be-faced-with-2024-01-31/
Al Jazeera - "In Pakistan, old hopefuls jostle to turn around struggling economy": It provides an analysis of Pakistan's economic challenges and how they are influencing the election scenario, including the struggles with inflation and foreign investment: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/2/6/in-pakistan-old-hopefuls-jostle-to-turn-around-struggling-economy
Mint - "Pakistan Election: Nawaz Sharif, Bilawal Bhutto lead PM race, Imran Khan still in jail": This article offers a perspective on the stances of major contenders like Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, especially their views on India, and the influence of Imran Khan despite his imprisonment: https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-election-nawaz-sharif-bilawal-bhutto-lead-pm-race-imran-khan-still-in-jail-here-s-their-stance-on-india-11675243693508.html
This Guardian editorial highlights the military's long-standing influence over Pakistan's politics, pointing out that the military establishment has often played a key role in shaping the country's political narrative. This influence is evident in the current scenario, where Khan's confrontation with the military has led to his legal troubles and imprisonment: The Guardian view on Pakistan’s elections and Imran Khan: the military wins, again | Editorial | The Guardian
Do Pakistan’s Elections Matter for Balochistan?
Amid violence, public protests, and electoral manipulation, enthusiasm for the polls among the Baloch is at an all-time low. Do Pakistan’s Elections Matter for Balochistan? – The Diplomat